Trump has changed US party politics forever. His style of politics is more brutal, more vicious, less politically correct, and blunter than anything we’ve seen before. He is a spokesman, a joker, a populist and quick with his words. His supporters do not look for fact, they look for promises, having been exiled from the political elite for too long. They ignore the media that attacks their party and their spokesman. They believe almost whatever he says. That is the new Republican Party. In his 4 years in charge Trump has brought in the old outcasts of politics, brought in new Republicans, and as a result the belief in Trumpism is stronger than ever and has brought the party further from the centre than it has been before. Now, after he has lost this election, the party is in potential turmoil. With his loss in 2021 and many potential court cases coming at him, the possibility of Trump running is difficult to assert. Furthermore, Trump, who is currently 74 is potentially too old to run in the next election, so who will take his place? This opens the opportunity for Anti-Trump Republicans to take back the party or for a person cast in the image of Trump to take his place.

The Trump Family

Political Career(s)

Having survived this second impeachment trial, it seems that Donald and his family are safe to continue their activity in the Republican Party. While Trump has been President winning the Republican Primaries last time by a landslide and winning by just under 1,000 delegates in 2016. With his loss in 2020 and the resulting fall out with the cries of a rigged election, and the ongoing current and potential court cases that if he survives this, he will have no problem in winning the 2024 Primaries. 

Donald Jr has been working for his father business but has always been a vocal actor on twitter, and with his father potentially not being able or wanting to run in 2024 he could step in as the maverick son of the greatest Republican leader. So far, however, he has had little political experience. Despite this he’s hinted at 2024, claiming him running would, ‘make lib heads explode’. How serious a statement this is we don’t know, but this quote seems to show how his father’s aggressive style of politics would likely continue under Donald Jr.

Ivanka Trump and her husband Kushner have been key players in the Trump administration, with Kushner’s crucial involvement on foreign relations with Israel resulting in him crafting the peace plan. Ivanka has worked as an advisor for Trump on domestic matters and was less vocal than her father, with many hoping she could have been a moderating figure.

Finally, Eric Trump. He has stayed out of politics so far, but it remains to be seen if he’ll get pulled in next. He has made several campaign appearances and could step up to the next level with his father’s backing. Most recently he said that his father was the ‘Most beloved political figure in history’ in a CNN interview.

2024 Republican Presidential Candidacy odds: 10/10, 7/10, 8/10 and 4/10

Most of the Trump family have a good opportunity to win in 2024. Trump’s supporters who carried Trump to victory in 2016 and 2020 Primaries are likely to allow Trump or any of his family to dominate and easily win. 

If Trump runs then he is likely to dominate even more than he did in 2024, taking control of the party to expel the Never-Trumpers and  get revenge for the (claimed) rigged election. His main problems would be the fact that he has been blamed by many political allies for the storming of the capital which has seriously damaged his credibility. Overall, Trump’s diehard supporters will still back him and he is likely to sweep up the vote if he runs.

Trump Jr would have to paint himself as his father’s successor who is likely run unless prevented by some court case or old age, despite being the child of Trump who has the worst relationship with their father, Cohen said, in his testimoney, Trump is ‘very hard on Don Jr., harder than he is on Ivanka or Eric. And Mr. Trump is not shy in front of people to say that Don Jr. has the worst judgment of anyone he’s ever met.’

 Consequently, Trump Jr has something to prove to his father and seems to be pushing to be his father’s ‘heir apparent’. Overall, he is the most similar child to Trump and likely would pick up similar voters and follow a similar path to victory.

Ivanka Trump is less vocal than her father but did call the people who stormed the Capitol, ‘American Patriots’ and told them to ‘Play Nice’, which hints at how radical she might be and how she could be positioning herself for a future presidential run by cosying up to her father’s supporters. Another political position Ivanka Trump might run for is Marco Rubio’s Presidential seats in 2022. With Donald Trump beating Rubio by 18.7% in 2016, this is entirely possible.

Eric Trump was left running the family business and is one of the less likely Trump family candidates, with his wife getting into politics through taking over the retiring Richard Burr’s Senate seat in 2022. Eric Trump is less vocal and lacks the same interest in politics, but along with the other children, he could be seen as a viable figure.

Overall, any of the Trump family have a solid chance to win due to the loyalty of their base and the hold Trump has on the party. This will give them a solid advantage on any opponents in 2024, and they can also garner a large amount of support through rallies and social media.

Ted Cruz

Political Career

Cruz has been a Senator since winning the 2012 election against Democrat Paul Sadler, gaining 56.5% of the vote against Sadler’s 40.6%. He also won re-election in 2018, beating Democratic Ben O’Rourke by 220,000 votes, a result shockingly close to what had been expected.

Cruz didn’t quite make the cut in 2016, however, winning 10 states in 2016 and coming second with 563 delegates. He ended his run after the Indiana State primary because he failed to top Trump at the primary.

However, he has expressed interest in running again, and with 2024 being the year he would have to re-compete for his Senatorial seat, it could be the perfect chance for him to push on and claim the Presidency.

2024 Republican Candidacy Odds: 8/10

With a fairly successful campaign in 2020, Ted Cruz starts in one of the best positions for candidates. He has also reconciled with the Trump supporters, even going so far as to vote against certifying the 2020 elections. 

However, recently Cruz has faced trouble with his normal supporters in his move towards the right. His failure to condemn the Trump supporters who stormed the capital, mixed with the states failure during the Texas winter storms in February and Cruz travelling to Cancun during this time, has put him in a bad stead with his previous regular voters. The start of 2021 has not help Cruz with the moderates, which could be key should he run in 2024.

Cruz seems to have the problem on how to energize potential Trump supporters to vote for himself instead, while retaining his traditional GOP-base. He has 3 years to build this however, and so has plenty of time to repair any relationship faults.

If Cruz does run he will be able to secure a large war chest. He managed to collect just under $142,000,000 in 2016 – the second most money gathered by any failed candidate – losing only just to Jeb Bush.

Overall, Cruz is likely to do just as well as he did in 2016 and will be aiming to win. He will probably end in the top 3, but we’ll have to watch events during the 2024 race to see where he does end up.

Ron Desantis

Political Career

Ron Desantis ran for the first time in 2012 and succeeded, taking over from Republican incumbent Cliff Stearns as Representative of Florida and beating Democrat Heather Beaven with 57.2% of the vote. He held onto this seat successfully in 2016, winning with 58.6% of the vote. He then resigned in 2018 and ran for governor in a very tight race.

He had strong funding from rich donors edging him $300,000 ahead. Gillum had 40 donors writing checks of $50,000 or more, with DeSantis having 100. Both presented themselves as mainstays of their parties to appeal to voters. In the end, DeSantis won by 0.4%, or just under 33,000 votes.

Since this election, Ron Desantis has done an excellent job as governor, which has pleased both parties. The Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said:

“I say this as a Democrat and as a mayor: I’ve been really pleased and pleasantly surprised by the course and the decisions he’s made”

Yes, he has been conservative placing Conservatives in key places in his government, such as Mary Mayhew, a top Trump health care official, who he assigned to run Medicaid. But overall, he has been a successful governor and, despite not being one of the high-profile governors on COVID, he claims he has done an effective job, shutting down and reopening the state while even being praised by Trump.

One dark spot, however, has been the controversial vaccine control in the state,  with only 8.4% Floridians being vaccinated and officials accusing Desantis of ‘linking vaccines to donations’. Desantis hit back, sayingthat the gated community, which has some donors to Desantis, was given vaccines by a hospital:

“If you’re 65 and up, I’m not worried about your income bracket, I’m worried about your age bracket. Because it’s the age, not the income, that shows the risk”

2024 Republican Candidacy odds: 7/10

Desantis is a rising star. His short effective political career has led to much successful, little controversy and consequently in a poll without Trump as an option he had 17% support, 2% away from top Pence and 4% ahead of Cruz. With Trump involved Santis rapidly drops to 7%. Pence, DeSantis and Cruz seem to be the potential candidates if Trump does not run, with supporters ‘gravitating’ to them according to Tony Fabrizo, the 2020 pollster for Trump’s Campaign and the man who ran these two polls. 

DeSantis has been supported by Trump since his run for governor, and with the next governor election in 2022, it could be an important place for him to set out his stool for 2024.

His support base looks to him as a successor to Trump due to his less abrasive style but similar policies. His main problem will be the wealth of Southern Republicans who look to have positions, as well as other Florida Republicans, Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, who both have a strong hold in Florida and seem to have 2024 in their sights.

With a strong base of Florida where the majority approve of his performance as governor, DeSantis has a strong base for 2024. He could have a good run in 2024 if Trump doesn’t run. If he does, however, DeSantis could step in as a Vice-President candidate. Desantis would most likely end 2^nd or 3^rd in a close race, maybe even first.

Mike Pence

Political Career

In 1988 and 1990, Pence ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House against the incumbent Democrat Philip Sharp. In 1990 he lost by 19% and was criticised for his negative campaigning and pledged to never run a negative campaign again. He was successful in 2000 and stayed as an Indianan Representative until 2013. 

Pence then ran for Governor of Indiana in 2012, winning with 49.5% of the vote and beating the Democrat candidate by 3.9% of the vote. As Governor, Pence signed a $1.1 billion give-back – the largest tax cut in state history – and by 2016, Indiana was enjoying a $2-billion budget surplus. However, one of the major marks on his time as governor was the Religious Freedom Restoration Act of March 2015, which was to protect business owners from same-sex marriage, but ended in threats to pull out of the state. Pence was eventually forced to provide exemptions for LGBTQ communities in said bill. 

In the midst of his campaign to be re-elected, Pence was selected to be Trump’s Vice President, due to his experience. With almost four years of support of Trump, Pence broke away from him to pass the 2020 election results even while Trump supporters stormed the capital. This has led to a breakage between the two leaders with Trump telling him “I don’t want to be your friend” days after asking Pence to“come through for us” while speaking to his supporters at the White House rally that ended with the storming of the Capitol.

2024 Republican Presidential Candidacy odds: 6/10

In a Politico/Morning Consult poll in February 2021 asking ‘If the 2024 Republican primary were being held today, for whom would you vote?’ Pence came in second with 12%, but he was far behind with Trump, who held 53% of the vote.  With Trump potentially ditching Pence for his 2024 campaign and choosing someone else, this poll highlights the work Pence has on his hands to challenged in 2024.

Consequently, Pence must look at who his supporters will be. He might lack the die-hard Trump supporters, but he still has a solid base. He is a strong evangelical, speaking to a community that was persuaded to back Trump in 2017, with Pence saying to the pastors:

“I’ve been with [Trump] alone in the room when the decisions are made, He and I have prayed together. This is somebody who shares our views, shares our values, shares our beliefs.”

His base is the Conservative Christians, with Richard Land, President of the Southern Evangelical Seminary, saying“I don’t know anyone who’s more consistent in bringing his evangelical-Christian worldview”. With Pence’s record on abortion and religious freedom, this comes as no surprise.

The White Conservative Evangelical section of the Republicans has been important for the party, and if Pence can harness their support then they could carry him in the 2024 primary to a high position. He could likely end up third or fourth due to his high-profile, but the opposition he might face from Trump could overwhelm his campaign.

Nikki Haley

Political Career

Was Governor of South Carolina from 2010 to 2017, serving 7 years before being chosen as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She won in 2010, beating Democratic candidate Sheheen 51.4% to 46.9%. In 2014 Haley won re-election where she faced Sheheen again, winning 55.9% to 41.4%. 

She was the first female governor of South Carolina and during her time she increased state employment by 400,000, successfully worked to remove the Confederate Flag from the state and dealt with multiple Hurricanes and storms during her time. 

Haley, as US Ambassador to the UN, was aggressive and had many conflicts. An example of this was showing pictures of dead Syrian children in 2018 and accusing the Russian and Syrian government of killing them through a chemical attack, saying this was ‘not fake news’. She also had to defend the move of the US Embassy for Israel to Jerusalem saying, “we will put our embassy where we want to put our embassy”. 

She resigned in October 2018 after two years with Trump. Haley had done “an incredible job”. However, since this there relationship has worsened, with Haley saying in February 2021 that‘we shouldn’t have listened to Trump’, changing her position on him after 4 years of support.

2024 Republican Candidacy Odds: 6/10

Haley is a rather unknown figure in the recent years, having been UN Ambassador and then taking two years out. This means that Haley is an unknown force. The next couple of years will define her 2024 campaign. Her recent break from Trump was made official in a Politico interview, with Haley saying: 

“We need to acknowledge he let us down,” Haley said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”

With this she breaks from Trump and has a strong base of support from Jewish Americans. Whether she can build from this support is questionable, but the financial power they have is not. The Republican Jewish Coalition is a powerful action in the Republican Party with large financial powers. The Coalition raised over $10 million in 2012 and have increased their yearly revenue, from $3 million in 2013 to $5.9 million in 2018. 

Overall, Haley is a rather unknown character in terms of policy and what she stands for, but she still has a national presence through her roles of Governor and UN Ambassador. She has a strong support base but would need to expand it to become a true challenger to the other candidates with larger support bases. She will most likely end 3^rd or 4^th and could potential be a VP pick.

Josh Hawley

Political Career

Hawley was the Attorney General for Missouri from 2017-2019, winning in 2016 with 61% of the vote. He then ran for Senator of Missouri in 2018 beating two-term Democratic Party incumbent Claire McCaskill 51.4% to 45.6%. 

As Senator he has been an ardent supporter of Trump and is one of the further-right members of the Senate. He has an F for his progressive score and is 91^st in the ProgressivePunch Poll. An iconic moment for him was opposing the 2020 US election results captured through the picture of him with his fist raised to the Trump supporters before they stormed the capital.

According to the Congress website, Hawley has directly sponsored 85 bills and cosponsored 269. He has had 2 of his laws passed through the Senate and the House, 3 statements agreed in the Senate and 2 more agreed to in the Senate before expiring at the end of 116th Congress. 

2024 Republican Candidacy odds: 5/10

Hawley has been referred to by Missouri Republicans as ‘Trump 2.0’. He has been a stark opposer to the Democrats, being the only Senator to vote against all Biden’s cabinet nominations.

If he continues to be the face of Biden resistance in the Republican Party then he will receive national attention and gain the support of Trump supporters and general anti-Democratic voters. He has also gained Trump supporters’ praise for being the first senator to publicly state he would vote against the Electoral College votes, voting against Pennsylvania’s.

However, his actions before the capital riots – particularly, raising his fist to the soon-to-be rioters – could be a contentious issue with independent and moderate Republicans. This could damage his chances if Trump runs, as he will be stuck -unable to get moderates, but unable to prise Trump supporters away from the man himself.

It is likely that Hawley will only run if Trump does not. With his seat coming up for re-election in 2024, Hawley will have to choose between the Presidency or his Senate seat. He has stated that he is not planning to run but this is a common tactic among potential candidates, with both Obama in 2008 and Biden in 2017 saying that they were not likely to run.

Hawley is likely to run very successfully if Trump does not run in 2024, and using the base of Trump’s 2016 support he could easily be positioned 1^st or 2^nd. However, if Trump does run (which is likely) then Hawley could potentially end 5/6^th and maybe pick up the VP position, with Trump already saying that he has ditched Pence as VP.

Mitt Romney

Political Career

Mitt Romney first ran for the U.S. Senate seat of Massachusetts in 1994, losing to Democrat incumbent Ted Kennedy 41% to 58%. Romney then ran for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002 winning with 50% of the vote and beating the Democratic candidate O’Brien with 45%. 

He was Governor of Massachusetts until 2007, when Romney ran for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. He was very successful in this campaign, and during this got into a war of words with McCain, the eventual nominee. Romney finished second overall with just 242 delegates while McCain reached 1575 delegates, beating the target of 1191.

Romney reached the pinnacle of his career as Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012, winning the candidacy easily with 1575 delegates against the target of 1144. Romney was doing well in the 2012 going into October, with both him and Obama having 47% of support at the end of October according to a Pew Research Center poll. Romney got 206 to Obama’s 332 electoral votes, losing by 5 million votes in the 2012 election and representing a poor showing in the election as he lost in key states.

Romney’s next involvement in politics was becoming Senator in Utah in 2018, beating Jenny Wilson with 63% of the vote. As Senator he has not stuck in-line with Republicans, voting to impeach Trump in both 2020 and 2021. Alongside these votes, Romney was attacked by Trump, with Trump tweeting in Feb 2020: 

if the “failed presidential candidate” had “devoted the same energy and anger to defeating a faltering Barack Obama as he sanctimoniously does to me, he could have won the election.”

2024 Republican Candidacy odds: 4/10

While Romney has already said that Trump would win the GOP nomination ‘in a landslide’ in 2024, if he chose to run would likely have a chance. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that Romney would get 4% of the vote to Trump’s 53%, beating several other candidates.

As a Mormon he would find funds and support from the Church of Latter-Day Saints. He has even been called the ‘Face of Mormonism’, and as most Mormons are strong Republicans he can be certain of their support. He has stuck by his religion in multiple instances, including when he twice voted to impeach Trump, saying the first time:

“The allegations made in the articles of impeachment are very serious. As a Senator-juror, I swore an oath, before God, to exercise “impartial justice.” I am a profoundly religious person. I take an oath before God as enormously consequential. I knew from the outset that being tasked with judging the President, the leader of my own party, would be the most difficult decision I have ever faced”

Romney has hinted that his time as senator is a one-term event freeing him up for 2024. If he does run, he would have to oppose some sort of Trump opposition but would he gain the support of the anti-Trump conservatives, many of whom voted for Biden or did not vote. Some believe that Mitt Romney can lead the opposition to Trump back to the core values from which Trump has strayed. 

Overall, if Romney does run he will likely be beaten by Trump or any Trump supported candidate. They will have a united support base while Romney will have to fight to pick up the anti-trump scraps. Realistically he will probably finish fifth or sixth with his highest chance being third if he can become the face for the anti-trump opposition.

Paul Ryan

Political Career

Ryan first became a Representative for Wisconsin in 1999, lasting in the role until 2018. The most impressive record of his time as Representative is that he got over 60% of the vote in all his elections outside of 2012. During this time, he also became VP candidate for the Republicans in 2012 but got destroyed by Biden in their debate, in what the Guardian called an ‘alpha-male display’. Despite losing in 2012 he still won his race for his House seat.

His career peaked in 2015, when he became Speaker of the House with 236 votes. He was the centrist option and had to deal with a fractured House of Republicans, but was still re-elected in 2017, getting 239 votes.

The main problem of his speakership for many was the “deal with the devil”, in which he made an alliance with Trump, a man who was the opposite of his character.

Paul Ryan then retired, choosing to not run re-election so he could spend more time with his children:

“If I am here for one more term, my kids will only ever have known me as a weekend dad. I can’t let that happen,”

2024 Republican Candidacy odds: 2/10

Since retiring, Paul Ryan has become more vocal in his opposition to Trump, criticising the GOP challenge to the 2020 election as ‘anti-democratic and anti-conservative’.

By detaching himself from the Trump Administration since 2017 and leaving the House of Representatives, Ryan has opened his opportunity for a 2024 run. However, only one House Representative has moved straight from the House of Reps to the White House and that was in 1880, hinting at how unlikely this is.

Paul Ryan seems to be doing decently with the bookies, however. Betfair have him 8^th in the race and on OddsShark he is 19th of 39 potential candidates. Paul Ryan would be looking to pick up support from Republicans looking for a respectable politician, which is how he came across as Speaker of the House. At 55, he comes across as someone who could definitely fulfil two terms.

There is also potential for him to be Vice-President by pairing with someone more conservative, such as Mike Pence. Overall, Ryan would probably finish near the bottom of the pack, probably 5th or 6th, winning very few states.

Rick Scott

Political Career

Scott started his career as Governor of Florida, holding the post from 2011 to 2019. He won in 2010, spending nearly $75 million of his own money and winning by 1.2% while beating Democrat Alex Sink. In 2014 he won re-election, beating Charlie Crist by 1.1% despite having a poor first term and his opinion poll never rising above 45%.

Rick Scott had multiple big events in his time as governor. Of the positives, he brought a million jobs to Florida, blocked offshore drilling (being one of the few states to avoid the drilling expansion ordered by Trump’s Administration) and lowered state debt by $10 billion. However, there were negatives to his time as governor, including him rejecting $2 billion from the Obama Administration for high-speed rail and leaving 700,000 low-income Floridians without healthcare coverage after refusing to expand Medicaid.

Rick Scott then ran for Senate in 2018 beating Bill Nelson, the Democrat incumbent since 2000, by 10,000 votes. It was the most expensive Senate race in the country, with Scott spending $40 million of his money.

What will weigh heavily on Scott’s 2024 odds is his recent election as Chair of the Republican Senatorial Committee. His role in this is to prepare the party for the 2022 midterms. The success or failure of this midterm election for the party will effect his standing is the party and his chances in 2024.

2024 Republican Candidacy Odds: 2/10

Rick Scott first hinted that he would be running for 2024 by spending $19,000 on attack ads that trashed both Biden and the impeachment of Trump during the Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus.

With the potential negative of his Medicare fraud fine being paid out by his former hospital company in 1997, Rick Scott is said to believe that his victories in Florida, a swing seat, will neutralise this liability. However, it appears that he is not the most popular Floridian who could run for 2024, with GOP pollster Tony Fabrizo finding that Desantis gets 64%, Marco Rubio gets 12% and Scott only gets 10% of the pollsters votes. 

Furthermore, his Senate approval rate is 47%, with 36% disapproving of his work, which hints at how his home state Florida is not a secure base for him. If either of the other Floridian’s run then he could have trouble.

One thing that wouldn’t be a problem for Rick Scott is money. He is the richest member of the Senate, worth $259 million, which means that he can easily supply a moderate war chest from his own money.

Overall, Rick Scott is unlikely to struggle for funds, but would probably struggle to build any momentum, and even his most assured state of Florida he could lose. Overall, Scott would be towards the bottom of the pack, struggling in most states and potentially not even being close to winning in Florida. He would end in 8^th or 9^th.

Looking at the Republican field, it initially seems to be split between Pro-Trump and Anti-Trump Republicans, but it is more complicated than that. Many of the candidates are looking to create or build their legacy as a politician, and 2024 is a crucial year for that. The Republican field is more crowded than the Democrat, with several other candidates (like Marco Rubio or even Kayne West, potentially) running for the Republican candidacy. It is difficult to see anyone else winning if Trump runs, but if he doesn’t then the opportunity to be Presidential nominee in 2024 will be tantalising for many and could create chaos. Trump really does hold the keys to the identity of the 2024 candidate and, with no one sure of what he will do next, the Republican Party will just have to wait with baited breath to see what the future holds.

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Cover image by Sanni Pyhänniska.

Illustrations by Rebekka Katajisto.

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